Our Technology is uniquely placed to understand audiences and critically what matters to them. For a month, we have focused these capabilities on the US Election, making sense of this ever increasingly complex landscape. Having analysed billions of data points, proxied for millions of voters, and uncovered hundreds of nuanced audience clusters, our analysis boils down to one outtake:
The widely reported political divergence between young men and women in America could prove pivotal to the election outcome With clear, issue-specific sub-trends that could shape the whole outcome.
While it seems the Democrats have ‘more’ voters nationwide, Republicans appear to be winning with one key group, in one key state, that could have seismic consequences. Our analysis uncovered 6 key tribes that we can classify the large majority of the US electorate into. These tribes map in vastly different ways across the political spectrum.
Focussing our analysis on five key swing states, we can then combine our audience understanding and their political preferences to model an outcome of the vote in each.
According to our analysis, the Republicans should win Arizona and the Democrats should win Wisconsin, although the majorities will be slender. The other three will be unbelievably close. Our projections estimate Pennsylvania and Michigan will go marginally red, with Georgia going marginally blue. The closest of these will be Pennsylvania, where ‘Patriot Jocks’ will likely cast the deciding votes.
Download the full report here.
Get access to the full depth of our thinking, including:
- Who are going to be the deciding voter groups in this election?
- Which issues matter most to which voter groups?
- Why do we think the Republicans might just win it?
- What do we think the Democrats could do to reverse this?
This is the level of research, insight and methodology we are applying every day for brands, government departments and investment decision makers. Using our AI tech to understand audiences then activate communications into every biddable digital media channel globally.
